Economic Data

- (IN) India FY13 Budget Deficit at INR4.9Tvs. INR5.2T Govt target
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 24th: $292.1B v $292.0B prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) May Inflation Expectations: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Trade Balance (ZAR): -15.0B v -9.5Be
- (US) Apr Personal Income: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Personal Spending: -0.2% v 0.0%e
- (US) Apr PCE Deflator M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e
- (US) Apr PCE Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.1 % v 1.0%e
- (CA) Canada Mar Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.5%e
- (CA) Canada Q1 Quarterly GDP Annualized: 2.5% v 2.3%e
- (CL) Chile Apr Unemployment Rate: 6.4% v 6.3%e
- (US) May NAPM-Milwaukee: 40.67 v 49.00e
- (BR) Brazil Apr Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): -7.7B v -7.1Be; Primary Budget Balance: 10.3B v 13.0Be; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 35.4% v 35.4%e
- (US) May Chicago Purchasing Manager: 58.7 v 50.0e; highest since spring 2012
- (US) May Final University of Michigan Confidence: 84.5 v 83.7e; highest since July 2007
- (MX) Mexico Apr Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): 2.323T v 2.325Te

- Asian markets saw another jolt of volatility overnight thanks to inflation data and more fluctuation in JGB yields. European indices closed near their lowest levels, after a very poor April euro zone unemployment report and talk that the China May manufacturing PMI report would be in contraction territory (as was the HSBC flash PMI report earlier this week). US markets are making very modest gains after good data: as of writing the DJIA is up 0.22%, the S&P500 is flat and the Nasdaq is up 0.17%.

- The Chicago PMI index saw its strongest reading in more than a year, as the May figure handily beat expectations. The new orders, employment and production components were notably strong. Minutes after the Chicago PMI dropped, the final May University of Michigan reading edged higher from the preliminary reading, at its best level since July 2007. Taken together, the data further heightens expectations for Fed tapering this year. Note however that this morning's April PCE data was not especially positive, with personal spending down slightly.

- The greenback has steadily strengthened through the US session as bond yields move higher. EUR/USD has given up all the gains seen during yesterday's session, dropping a big figure from 1.3040 to lows of 1.2950. Yields on the benchmark US 10-year treasury pushed out toward the highs seen earlier in the week but did not take out Tuesday's high, leveling off around 2.15%.

- OPEC agreed to maintain its 30M bpd production quota at its conference in Vienna today. The organization confirmed that it has no official price target for crude and reiterated that it was closely watching market action. OPEC also said it would expand capacity to combat volatility and study whether shale oil is sustainable over the long term.

- The US ADRs of the National Bank of Greece are trading up nearly 18% this morning after the firm launched an offer to buy back 22.5M of its outstanding US-listed ADS preference shares for a total of $281M. This comes just two days after a stock split.

- AIG may be having some hiccups in its plan to sell off its International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) unit. This morning in a filing, AIG disclosed that an undisclosed deposit amount related to the deal was not received by the escrow agent. This comes just two weeks after the parties extended the termination clause in the deal by a month. Analysts played down the possibility of the deal falling apart, however shares of AIG are down 2.5%.

- Both Guess? and Krispy Kreme reported strong quarterly results, with better-than-expected earnings and strong guidance. GES is up 10% while KKD is up 16%.

Looking Ahead

- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Apr National Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.2% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 11.4%e v 11.6% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Construction Activity M/M: No est v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.9% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China May Manufacturing PMI: 50.0e v 50.0 prior