Today we turn to fundamentals with heavy data to be released from Europe ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision, where Germany will start the session with the unemployment figures for October, while the euro zone and Germany will provide manufacturing data later on.
Germany will start the session with unemployment change figures, which could have declined by ten thousands in October from the previous decline of 26 thousands in September. In addition, Germany unemployment rate is projected to linger at 6.9% in the related month.
Furthermore, the German purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing is expected to show stability in the October Final and unrevised at 48.9, while the euro-area PMI for manufacturing could have settled at 47.3 in October.
Investors will closely watch the heavy fundamentals from Europe, with hopeful eyes that better than expected reading could reduce the sharpness of the volatility and pessimism which is dominating the market after Papandreou announced general referendum on the bailout deal approved by European leaders last week.
Fears and jitters are rising in Europe, where a “no” vote from Greeks could lead the country into default especially after the chairman of the euro-area countries, jean-Claude Junker explained that Greece could face bankruptcy in the near term without the second bailout package in case Greeks refused the bailout deal.
The sudden call for general referendum sent markets to collapse, and now concerns and fears are rising due to the deep impact a Greek default could have on the market, where the debt crisis could worsen and deepen further and also could spread into Italy and Spain and then will threatens the survival of the euro zone.
Turning to the world’s largest economy, the FOMC rate decision will be released during the U.S. session today, with expectations that committee will vote to keep rates unchanged to support growth and revive recovery, especially after the recent operations and steps taken by the Fed supported the economy to improve and expand beyond expectations.
The U.S. will also release the ADP employment change for October, with expectations that the private sector could have added 100 thousands jobs compared to the previous 91 thousands added in September.
Finally, we repeat again that volatility and jitters are dominant in the market and pessimism will prevail unless some cheerful data from Europe could reduce the sharpness of pessimism and could support markets to calm after the heavy fluctuations seen during the week; however, we recommend caution, where markets will not be normalized unless Greece solves the referendum issue and European leaders implement their final plan.
Source http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/top-fundamental-stories/2011-11-02.html