FOREX-Swissie pressured; euro lower ahead of Italy vote | Reuters

Tue Nov 8, 2011 1:54am EST

* Swissie nurses hefty losses on intervention fears

* Euro seen under mounting pressure as Italy vote looms

* Greeks scrambling to pick new PM to implement bail out

* EUR/USD spot resilient, but risk reversals suggest deep anxiety

* Aussie slides in thin trade as several players sell

By Antoni Slodkowski

TOKYO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The threat of more intervention by Swiss authorities kept the franc under pressure on Tuesday, while the euro dipped ahead of a crucial vote in Italy, with the country's bond yields at 14-year highs and Greece scrambling to pick a new premier.

The Swiss franc extended hefty losses sustained on Monday after the country's central bank officials stepped up their warning of more action to curb the currency if needed. The Swiss National Bank capped the franc at 1.20 francs per euro in September and vowed to defend that level with all means necessary.

Even the shaky euro extended gains by 0.2 percent to 1.2418 francs after making its biggest one-day jump in two months on Monday. The dollar climbed above 0.9037 francs for the first time in almost three weeks.

"The SNB has done a pretty good job so far, pressuring the franc with verbal warnings only. The peg is at 1.20 francs, but their ultimate goal may be 1.25, and we are still some distance away from that," said Teppei Ino, currency strategist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, adding that further warnings were likely.

The SNB remarks came after the Swiss franc started creeping back up amid further deepening of the debt crisis in the euro zone, with Italian bond yields approaching levels seen as unsustainable on Monday.

With the anxiety surrounding one of the world's biggest sovereign bond markets, the euro shed 0.3 percent to $1.3743 , down from $1.3773 late in New York and well off a 2-month high of $1.4248 hit on Oct. 27.

That said, it was still seen as resilient after holding roughly in the middle of the $1.3608-$1.3868 range of the past week, puzzling traders who had expected a bigger fall on the jump in Italy's borrowing costs.

One explanation is that euro bears are still cautious about taking aggressive short positions after being badly burnt in late October when the euro briefly surged above $1.4200.

Some traders fear the common currency could test the upside of the $1.3880-1.3670 upwardly sloping channel formed this month, especially as the market remains somewhat short.

If such a corrective rally were to gain steam, the euro could pierce a layer of offers lurking between $1.3810 and $1.3870 to target resistance at $1.3930 -- the 50 percent retracement of the $1.4248-$1.3608 slide, they said.

For the time being, bids were seen supporting the euro right below its session low around $1.3725.

DARK CLOUDS

Still, the long term outlook for the euro remains brittle.

"The threat to the FX market, obviously, is that a country with nominal GDP growth of just 1.8 percent at the last count and debt totalling 120 percent of GDP, cannot sustain 6.5 percent yields for long," said Kit Juckes, strategist at Societe Generale.

Italy's parliament gears up to vote on Tuesday and Silvio Berlusconi's government could fall, an event that may be welcomed by markets and spark a brief relief rally, though further political turmoil could follow.

In addition, Greece's outgoing prime minister and opposition leader rushed to put in place a national unity government for just long enough to save their country from imminent default by implementing a new bailout programme.

"The euro is watching to see who will head the new Greek government, how the Italian budget vote will go, and whether it will lead to a change in government. But the pressure is building, even if it is visible only in the bond market," said Juckes.

This view was underscored by persistent hedging against downside risks in option markets, with 25-delta 1-month risk reversals at 4.3/3.3 favouring euro puts, not far from extreme levels of 4.45 hit in September when the euro began its slide and well above peaks seen in 2008 and 2010.

Market players added that Rome's auction of fixed rate bonds on Nov. 14 was also in focus as a possible trigger for a euro sell-off if it leads to even higher borrowing costs.

The risk-leveraged Australian dollar lost 0.7 percent to $1.0311 as most Asian bourses turned red and U.S. stocks futures fell 0.5 percent with traders citing talk of selling by Swiss, Australian and U.S. names.

The dollar index has been stuck in a range of 76.574-77.676 and last stood at 77.090. Against the yen, the greenback was also barely changed hovering at 78.04 yen .

Source http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/reuters/USdollarreportNews/~3/DwMEGHkmbrc/markets-forex-idUSL4E7M813A20111108



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