Talking Points

• Markets Positioned for Successful Greek Accord as Stock Index Futures Rise
• German Industrial Production May Surprise Higher After Pickup in PMI Data
• Australian Dollar Soars as RBA Unexpectedly Holds Interest Rates Unchanged
• Japanese Yen Down After MoF Reveals Five "Stealth" Interventions in Q4

Most major currencies were little changed against theUS Dollar (ticker:USDollar) in overnight trade as markets waited for clarity on the status of negotiations betweenGreece and the so-called “troika” of the ECB, the EU, and the IMF on the debt-strapped country’s second bailout package. TheAustralian Dollar outperformed after theReserve Bank of Australia left benchmark interest rates unchanged at 4.25 percent, disappointing widespread expectations for a 25bps reduction. TheJapanese Yendeclined after the Ministry of Finance revealed it intervened five times in the USDJPY exchange rate in the fourth quarter.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos set a deadline of 10:00 GMT yesterday for ruling coalition party leaders to decide if they were prepared to signed on for more austerity – which the troika demands in exchange for an additional tranche of aid – to avert a default looming as soon as March 20 when €14.5 billion in debt is due to mature. That deadline passed and was extended seemingly without incident, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy ominously warned that “time was running out” and reiterated that no deal on additional funding would be possible without Athens’ assent the troika’s demands.

Greek labor unions are preparing to stage yet another strike as negotiations continue to drag on, adding to the tension quotient. Still, traders appear to believe that the potential consequences of a disorderly default will compel all parties to reach agreement before the point of no return. Indeed, European and USstock index futures are inching higher in late Asian hours, suggesting risk appetite is relatively well-supported. On the economic data front,German Industrial Production figures are in focus, with expectations calling for output to print flat in December, though a pickup in the more timely Manufacturing PMI reading over the same period suggests there may be room for an upside surprise.

Asia Session: What Happened

Euro Session: What to Expect

Critical Levels

---Written byIlya Spivak, Currency Strategist forDailyfx.com

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