Talking Points
TheUS Dollar (ticker:USDollar) continued to push higher overnight after adding 0.23 percent against its leading counterparts over the preceding 24 hours after the Federal Reserve policy announcementscattered QE3 expectations further, easing concerns policymakers would further dilute the benchmark currency.S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing materially lower in late Asian trade, hinting risk aversion is likely to propel the greenback higher still in the hours ahead.
The US currency broke with its long-stranding inverse relationship with stock prices yesterday. Indeed, the S&P 500 surged higher alongside the Dollar in the aftermath of the FOMC announcement, a response thatwe did not expect. The break-down of risk on/off trading dynamics seems like a temporary development however, with the impact of FOMC on equities obscured by an unexpected announcement of an increase in dividend payments and a $15 billion share buyback fromJPMorgan. This delayed downward pressure on risky assets from reduced QE3 expectations, but is unlikely to have dismissed it altogether. With that in mind, a catch-up move lower in sentiment andlinked assets appears probable.
On the economic data front,UK Jobless Claims figures are on tap. Expectations call for a relatively modest 5k increase in applications for unemployment benefits. The three-monthUnemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 8.4 percent. A print in line with expectations will probably neither advance nor detract from the case for additional Bank of England stimulus, leaving theBritish Pound at the mercy of broader risk trends.
Asia Session: What Happened
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
ACT |
EXP |
PREV |
|
23:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAR) |
-5.0% |
- |
4.2% |
|
23:30 |
AUD |
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAR) |
96.1 |
- |
101.1 |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q) |
-2.7 |
- |
-2.5 |
|
23:50 |
JPY |
BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q) |
-7.3 |
- |
-6.1 |
|
0:30 |
AUD |
Dwelling Starts (4Q) |
-6.9% |
-3.0% |
-5.8% (R+) |
|
2:00 |
NZD |
Non Resident Bond Holdings (FEB) |
60.3% |
- |
59.3% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN F) |
1.9% |
- |
2.0% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN F) |
3.4% |
- |
-1.2% |
|
4:30 |
JPY |
Capacity Utilization (MoM) (JAN F) |
-1.3% |
- |
3.1% |
|
6:00 |
JPY |
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN F) |
-8.6% |
- |
-8.6% |
Euro Session: What to Expect
|
GMT |
CCY |
EVENT |
EXP |
PREV |
IMPACT |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Rate (FEB) |
5.0% |
5.0% |
Medium |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Jobless Claims Change (FEB) |
5.0K |
6.9K |
High |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JAN) |
8.4% |
8.4% |
Medium |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (JAN) |
1.9% |
2.0% |
Low |
|
9:30 |
GBP |
Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (JAN) |
1.9% |
2.0% |
Low |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (FEB) |
0.5% |
-0.8% |
Medium |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (FEB) |
2.7% |
2.7% |
Medium |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (FEB) |
1.6% |
1.5% |
Low |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN) |
0.6% |
-1.2% |
Medium |
|
10:00 |
EUR |
Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN) |
-0.7% |
-2.0% |
Medium |
|
10:00 |
CHF |
Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAR) |
- |
-21.2 |
Medium |
Critical Levels
|
CCY |
SUPPORT |
RESISTANCE |
|
EURUSD |
1.2970 |
1.3166 |
|
GBPUSD |
1.5564 |
1.5761 |
---Written byIlya Spivak, Currency Strategist forDailyfx.com
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