At the beginning of the week AUDUSD attempted to carve out a bottom around 0.9145, which is a key long-term support level – 38.2% retracement level from the pair’s all-time high. Price action is now testing key short-term trend line support, at the same time as RSI is testing trend line support. A break here may see the pair back to the aforementioned long-term support level.

However, a break on the upside of a short-term triangle formation (see chart) may be a bullish development, as it may corresponded with a push above the pair’s 38.2% from a high on the 20th. There is no key data out of Asia today, yet it always worthwhile keeping an eye on the wires for any unexpected announcements, especially from officials in Beijing and Tokyo.

Support

• 0.9225/40 – 100hr and 50hr SMAs, 25% retracement level (see chart) and trend line support
• 0.9195
• 0.9145 – very key long-term support level – 38.2% retracement from all-time high

Resistance

• 0.9300 – 38.2% retracement level from post-Fed sell-off
• 0.9350 – 50% retracement level
• 0.9400 – 61.8% retracement level