EUR/NZD has begun to show the downward acceleration that I was looking for 10 days ago – See TECHNICAL UPDATE. Ultimately, very little has changed from a technical perspective, however it appears the shorter-term (hourly) and longer-term (daily) time frames have aligned. Moreover, we have identified 3 different points of reference to potentially trade against – 1.5895 (13 & 200-day sma’s), 1.5905/10 (October 19th low) & 1.6060 (October 16th high).

That said, here’s a few technical bullets on why I believe EUR/NZD downside could prevail:

• Saw a daily RSI bearish divergence into the 1.6055/60 high
• Continued to get rebuffed by the 50% retracement
• 13-day sma is crossing in-between daily 144 & 169 EMA’s while price is below (bearish)
• Sees hourly RSI bullish divergence (see yellow highlight)
• Elliot Wave Count in the midst of wave-4 up
• EW Count invalid if above 1.5910 (wave-1 low) as well as 61.8% retracement
• Watch for potential daily RSI trendline break in advance to price (leading indicator)
• Prior October low resides near 1.5470
• Bottom of daily Ichimoku Cloudis 1.5435/40

Chart Source: Forex Charts by eSignal