EUR/USD Technical Highlights:

  • EUR/USD continues to hold major support around 11500
  • Descending wedge has a bearish tilt to it, but…
  • We we’ll run with a top-side breakout should it develop
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) posted back-to-back bearish reversal bars

To see our intermediate-term fundamental and technical perspective on EUR/USD, check out our just releasedDailyFX Q3 Euro Forecast.

During the past few weeks the euro found support three different times via the 11500-line, which roughly represents the top of the 2015/16 range. Friday’s rip was impressive enough to cast doubt on the notion that the descending wedge developing since late-May will lead to an eventual breakdown.

Should this 3rd attempt to trade lower prove to have given the euro a passing grade, a recovery in the week ahead into the 11800s and higher could quickly develop. Trade above 11720 will have focus on the ECB-day high at 11852. Should the euro falter yet again, though, pressure on the 11500-level might become too great to hold. It’s looking like the less probable scenario after the late-week surge, but a break of 11500 will in all probability have sellers hitting bids in earnest.

Overall, EUR/USD is poised to trade higher in the days ahead, and while this may offer some good top-side opportunities, the general feeling is that it will be a recovery type rally and not a full-on bull market move. A breakout above the top of the wedge (April trend-line) will have focus on dip-buying opportunities on the 4-hr chart. A matured descending wedge with a solid break below 11500 will put us in the sellers' camp.

Gotten a little off track? Check out these4 ideas to help rebuild your confidence.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Descending Wedge Topside breakout?)

Strong Euro Thesis Growing Legs

EUR/USD Weekly Chart (Holding Support well so far)

Strong Euro Thesis Growing Legs

US Dollar Index Posted back-to-back bearish reversal bars

Looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY) weekly chart, last week was the second of a pair of bearish key-reversals, which is a solid indication that we’ll see follow-through on the downside in the days ahead. The euro largely dominates the index with a weighting of 57%, but broadly speaking currencies look headed towards gaining grown versus the dollar.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart (Double Reversals)

Strong Euro Thesis Growing Legs

EUR/USD Sentiment

As perIG Client Sentiment, traders are currently long by a slight amount with a long/short ratio of 1.10. Should we see this gauge quickly flip to strongly negative in the very near-term, it will be considered a contrarian indication that the euro is indeed going to continue gaining ground.

EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment

EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment

Helpful Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for trackingtrader sentiment, quarterlytrading forecasts, analytical and educationalwebinars held daily,trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who arenew to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

Source https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2018/06/30/EURUSD-Weekly-Technical-Outlook-Strong-Euro-Thesis-Growing-Legs-PRtech.html



Technical Analysis DailyFX

Image
CAD Strength on USD Weakness May Be Temporary
Tuesday, 03 July 2018
The Canadian Dollar has strengthened in recent sessions to trade down toward C$1.31 per USD, but broader forces like rate differentials could keep the pair moving higher. ... Read more...
Image
H2 Kicks Off With Focus on Demand Imbalance
Monday, 02 July 2018
WTI has gained 22.5% YTD despite H1 ending with Saudi and OPEC allies set to boost production. All of this should make for an exciting and likely volatile H2. ... Read more...
Image
Strong Euro Thesis Growing Legs
Saturday, 30 June 2018
The euro held major support on third test; can it gain traction or will it be yet another false start in the week ahead? ... Read more...
Image

Friday, 29 June 2018
The underlying trend higher got a boost on Friday after the Bank of Japan announced they were cutting bond purchases bringing the gain on USD/JPY toward 4% for the quarter. ...
Image

Friday, 29 June 2018
As a new quarter is set to launch, we will look at some of the largest markets and what we see from a 30k feet perspective. ...
Image
BoC Stirs Expectations But Trend Looks Firm
Thursday, 28 June 2018
The move to C$1.3386 per USD was the weakest level for the CAD since in a year, but the break from the key trendline may mean that CAD has more pain to come vs. US Dollar. ... Read more...
Image
Gold May Falls Farther As Sentiment Sours
Wednesday, 27 June 2018
The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias. ... Read more...
Image
USD/JPY Price Might Reverse Lower Based on Sentiment
Tuesday, 26 June 2018
The current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short. ... Read more...
Image
British Pound Price Bounces From Fibonacci Support post-BoE
Monday, 25 June 2018
The British Pound finally found some element of support after last week's surprisingly hawkish BoE outlay. But with GBP/USD already running into short-term resistance, will... Read more...
Image
Euro Bounce Set Up to Fail?
Saturday, 23 June 2018
The euro held support last week on yet another test, can it gain enough strength to turn things around or will it only turn out to be a corrective bounce? ... Read more...

Technical Analysis FXstreet

What I See in FX Market
Saturday, 06 July 2013
$EURUSD What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.2830 on the S6 form the pivot point and a double bottom. We are waiting to see if we get a bounce back to... Read more...
Central banks and the NFP mix it up
Friday, 05 July 2013
Polish Zloty (EUR/PLN) – MPC cuts rates to lowest level in history For weeks like the ending one, traders wait for a long time. We experienced a lot of action from central... Read more...
Where is the smart money buying/selling $$?
Thursday, 04 July 2013
Simplified Supply Demand Table  The table below includes updated supply/demand levels on the major currency pairs. The table is updated on a daily basis after the NY... Read more...
Where is the smart money buying/selling $$?
Wednesday, 03 July 2013
Simplified Supply Demand Table  The table below includes updated supply/demand levels on the major currency pairs. The table is updated on a daily basis after the NY... Read more...
Where is the smart money buying/selling $$?
Tuesday, 02 July 2013
Simplified Supply Demand Table  The table below includes updated supply/demand levels on the major currency pairs. The table is updated on a daily basis after the NY... Read more...
Where is the smart money buying/selling $$?
Monday, 01 July 2013
Simplified Supply Demand Table  The table below includes updated supply/demand levels on the major currency pairs. The table is updated on a daily basis after the NY... Read more...
What I See in FX Market (Sat, Jun 29 2013)
Saturday, 29 June 2013
$EURUSD What Forex Target Traders See: We are currently sitting @ 1.3016 just below the .618 Fibo in a 5 wave move down. We are waiting to see if we get a bounce on the day... Read more...
GBPUSD is facing channel support
Saturday, 29 June 2013
GBPUSD is facing the support of the lower line of the price channel on daily chart. A clear break below the channel support will indicate that the downtrend from 1.6339 has... Read more...
GBPUSD bounces off the lower Bollinger Band for now. A weak close could spell trouble for next week
Friday, 28 June 2013
A ForexTrading.TV Technical Analysis Video Alert for GBPUSD... Read more...
Where is the smart money buying/selling $$?
Thursday, 27 June 2013
Simplified Supply Demand Table  The table below includes updated supply/demand levels on the major currency pairs. The table is updated on a daily basis after the NY... Read more...

Improve Your Trading Skills

forexforbeginners

"Simply a Must Read for Every Serious Forex Beginner"

Available at Amazon

Now also for Kindle 

get forex book

The Markets