Australian dollar has been on a tear for the past two months, and seems the RBA will do little to bring some relief to the commodity currency: the deterioration in Australia’s external balance points for further action coming from the Central Bank, with speculators considering a 0.25/0.50% rate cut. Considering that, a rate cut is mostly priced in, at least a 0.25 basis points one. If the RBA remains on hold, or inclines to a more optimistic outlook, the Aussie will likely advance some, but a reversal of the bearish trend is quite too far away.
On the other hand, a rate cut of 0.50%, along with a dovish stance from governor Stevens, the worst case scenario, will only fuel the dominant trend, sending AUD lower across the board and dragging NZD with it.
Source http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/be-ready/2013-07-01.html
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